Commenting on the impact of the Trump election on Korean trade for the past weeks—Korea-facing trade an area of my expertise– I have been hesitant as a Westerner to offer my views on the indictments against South Korean President Park.
Nevertheless, impeachment seems a growing likelihood. Politicos now predict the National Assembly will secure the required two-thirds majority vote needed to pass an impeachment bill. To this point, I feel the compelled to share what “next steps” we may see unfold. Pouring over scholarly updates including my longtime friend Professor Steph Haggard’s insightful “ Park Unraveling” series https://piie.com/blogs/north-korea-witness-transformation, I present a number of “If’s,” in short of President Park stepping down and resigning.
The “If’s.”
1. If the National Assembly moves forward and passes an impeachment bill, the Constitutional Court is then responsible for deliberating the case. In addition, President Park’s powers would be suspended with the Prime Minister charged to lead the nation during the interim.
2. The Court then has 180 days to make a ruling on whether charges against the president warrant impeachment. If the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment bill, the South Korean Constitution stipulates a presidential election must be held within 60 days. That means if the Court takes the full six months to rule on the case, the election would be held in August 2017.
3. If the Court rules in favor of impeachment, President Park would be stripped of her post and could face criminal and civil charges. Under Korean law, presidents while in office are immune from prosecution short of treason or insurrection.
4. It is worth noting, the next South Korean presidential election is scheduled for December 20, 2017. In the event, the Court rules in favor of President Park, incumbent Korean presidents are limited to a single 5-year term in office, and President Park could not seek re-election.
5. With no clear favorite yet for 2017 presidential election along with if President Park is impeached triggering an earlier election, pundits do feel the current United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former Korean Prime Minister, positioned well as the front-runner amid a field of opposition party hopefuls.
All noted, with the situation subject to change and fluid, we’ll have to take a wait and see approach to what unfolds next.
Comments and questions welcome.
A Measured Displeasure: North Korea
North Korea and a Measured Displeasure?. There is always some concern among Western teams when North Korea saber rattles… I will try to give some perspective.
I see no need for alarm even amidst a new round of missile launches and an alert by the North for “full-combat posture.”
Having followed North Korea since 1989 including a mix of academic work, friendships with some of the top experts on North Korea, as well as watching the more recent Trump-Kim talks… I’ve always felt any negotiations with the North seem like two steps forward, and one step back — not to mention North Korea is skilled at brinkmanship.
My take on the latest missile launches is that the North appears to be demonstrating measured displeasure with the breakdown in talks following the February Hanoi summit between leader Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.
The North also seems to be determined to put pressure on South Korea and Washington for the resumption of dialogue. Missle launches do get our attention.
For North Korea resumption of high-level Trump- Kim talks are the key to getting sanctions lifted, which is much needed for North Korea’s struggling economy.
And finally, resumption would help Kim show his leadership — many feel his failed efforts in Hanoi were damaging…including loss of face.
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