{"id":625,"date":"2011-03-07T09:44:00","date_gmt":"2011-03-07T16:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.songdoibdcitytalk.com\/blog\/?p=625"},"modified":"2011-03-07T09:49:27","modified_gmt":"2011-03-07T16:49:27","slug":"songdo-ibd%e2%80%93an-aerotropolis-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.songdoibdcitytalk.com\/blog\/songdo-ibd%e2%80%93an-aerotropolis-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Songdo IBD\u2013An Aerotropolis, Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Don Southerton, Songdo IBD CityTalk Editor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Found this in FT.com<\/a>.
\nNice comments by Stan Gale of Gale International, too.<\/p>\n

Aerotropolis<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

By Greg Lindsay<\/p>\n

Published: February 25 2011 17:03 | Last updated: February 25 2011 17:03<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Ten years ago, Stan Gale was a builder of New Jersey business parks. But in 2001 his fate began to change when he received a phone call from South Korea. The South Korean government had found Gale\u2019s company on the internet, and they made him an offer everyone else had refused. The brief: Gale International would borrow $35bn from Korea\u2019s banks, partner with its biggest steel company and use the money to build from scratch a city the size of downtown Boston \u2013 only taller and denser \u2013 on a muddy, man-made island in the Yellow Sea. When Gale arrived to see the site, it was miles of open water. He signed anyway.<\/p>\n

The proposed settlement, New Songdo, isn\u2019t so much a Korean city as a western one, floating offshore. It was chartered as an \u201cinternational business district\u201d \u2013 a hub for companies working in China. To make US expatriates feel at home, its malls are modelled on those in Beverly Hills, and Jack Nicklaus designed the golf course. But its most salient feature is shrouded in perpetual haze, opposite a 12km bridge. On the far side is Incheon International Airport, which opened in 2001 on reclaimed land and instantly became one of the world\u2019s busiest hubs.<\/p>\n

\u201c[The Koreans] tracked us down, wanted us to build a city in the ocean, and no one else was interested. What was going on here?\u201d Gale said. \u201cTheir vision scared everyone else away. It wasn\u2019t until I saw the airport that I understood where they wanted to go with this.\u201d The answer: to China. The sales pitch to prospective tenants is simple: move here and you\u2019re only a two-hour flight away from Shanghai or Beijing. You\u2019re four hours away at most from cities you\u2019ve never heard of, such as Changsha, which happens to be larger than Atlanta or Singapore. Nearly one billion people are a day trip away.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina alone needs 500 cities the size of New Songdo,\u201d Gale told me, and he hopes to break ground on the next one in Chongqing sometime this year. How many will be umbilically connected to the nearest airport? \u201cAll of them.\u201d<\/p>\n

To the jaundiced western eye, New Songdo and its clones might appear to be fantasies left over from the Bubble. But dismissing them as the product of Asia\u2019s infatuation with all things mega misses the carefully calibrated machinery underneath. It\u2019s a machine the rest of us ignore at our peril as we enter the next phase of globalisation \u2013 one marked by the shift from west to east and the trade routes up for grabs in between. The model for cities such as New Songdo even has a name, which Stan Gale pronounced with a flourish: \u201cIt\u2019s an aerotropolis.\u201d<\/p>\n

It isn\u2019t his word. The man who defined it is John Kasarda, a professor at the University of North Carolina who has made a name for himself with his radical vision of the future: rather than banish airports to the edge of town and then do our best to avoid them, we will build this century\u2019s cities around them. Why? Because people once chose to live in cities for the wealth of connections they offered socially, financially and intellectually. But in the era of globalisation, we choose cities that are drawing closer together themselves, linked by fibre-optic cables and jet aircraft. Stan Gale is simply taking this idea to its conclusion, building a network of instant cities joined by their airports.<\/p>\n

Many aerotropoli will evolve out of the cities we already call home \u2013 only, their highways and byways will lead us to terminals instead of downtown. For instant cities such as New Songdo, Kasarda has drafted a set of blueprints replete with high-speed trains and six-lane highways connecting prefab neighbourhoods and business districts. They range in size from a few thousand residents to a few million. Aerotropoli designed according to Kasarda\u2019s principles are already under way across China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and on the fringes of cities as desperate as Detroit and as old as Amsterdam. In Kasarda\u2019s opinion, any city has the potential to be one, provided it is willing to build, demolish and rebuild around its airports at its tenants\u2019 behest. The World Trade Center at Amsterdam\u2019s Schiphol Airport boasts some of the highest office rents in the Netherlands. Detroit is borrowing its blueprints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\"Looking<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Songdo is being built on reclaimed land in South Korea\u2019s Yellow Sea, as an air hub for companies working in China. \u2018China needs 500 cities this size,\u2019 says its chief builder<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Perhaps the purest example is\u00a0Dubai<\/a>, a city feverishly assembled, populated by highly stratified expatriates, and composed of enclaves that have less to do with each other than with like-minded communities thousands of miles away.<\/p>\n

The idea of the aerotropolis represents the logic of globalisation made concrete in the form of cities. Whether we consider it to be good or simply inevitable, the global village holds these truths to be self-evident: that customers on the far side of the world may matter more than those next door; that the pace of business, and of life, will always move faster and cover more ground; and that we must pledge our allegiance if we want our iPhones, Amazon orders, Kenyan green beans and Valentine\u2019s day roses at our doors tomorrow morning. If the airport is the mechanism making all of these things possible, Kasarda reasons, then everything else \u2013 our factories, offices, homes, schools \u2013 will be built accordingly. The aerotropolis, he promises, will be a new kind of city, one native to our era of instant gratification.<\/p>\n

I first met Kasarda in his office, surrounded by model planes he had received as gifts from one foreign delegation or another. The only other place I\u2019ve ever seen him in is an airport. He has flown more than three million miles in the past quarter of a century \u2013 and he is up in the air two months a year, flying far enough to circle the globe half a dozen times. Twenty years ago, Kasarda looked at the ascending trend lines of global trade and surmised that future growth depended on faster air travel. To that end, he devised a theory in which first factories then entire cities would form around greenfield airports, in order to wring a few extra hours from the day.<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite all the talk of the service economy, of healthcare and software as our national industries, the western world\u2019s is still a goods economy,\u201d Kasarda said. \u201cA large and growing proportion of these goods move internationally, as a consequence of trade and modern supply chains. All of this passes through a physical \u2018internet\u2019, the network of hubs and planes for trading and transporting goods \u2013 and people \u2013 almost as quickly as the internet itself. And it\u2019s arguably more important \u2013 the web can\u2019t move your box from Amazon.\u201d<\/p>\n

The aerotropolis, Kasarda says, is the \u201curban incarnation of this physical internet; the primacy of air transport makes airports and their hinterlands the places to see how it functions \u2013 and to observe the consequences\u201d. They may turn out to be mini-Manhattans like New Songdo or SimCities in the mould of Dubai \u2013 effectively an airline with an emirate attached \u2013\u00a0but they are the first cities in which what\u2019s on the ground is beside the point.<\/p>\n

. . .<\/p>\n

Humanity is officially an urban species \u2013 more than half of us live in cities. The percentage is even higher in the developed world, but Africa and Asia are catching up. The number of city dwellers is expected to almost double by 2050 to more than six billion \u2013 our current global population. The number of megacities (those with a population of 10 million or more) will have increased from two in 1950 to 27 by 2025, housing 450 million people between them. China might well need 500 new cities the size of New Songdo, and another 100 cities of one million residents or more.<\/p>\n

We have always chosen to live in cities for the wealth of networks they create \u2013 the elaborate webs of kinship and commerce. That promise hasn\u2019t changed since the agora and acropolis, but the size and scope of cities have. Cities grew by shrinking the distances within and between them, using technology to expand their grids and cover more ground.<\/p>\n

John Kasarda likens the history of cities to a rising tide of breaking waves. Ocean harbours were swept away by river ports, which yielded to railway terminals, which were in turn exploded by highways and suburbia. Transportation is destiny. The fifth wave is now here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Joel Garreau, the futurist and author of\u00a0Edge City<\/em>, declared, \u201cCities are always created around whatever the state-of-the-art transportation device is at the time.\u201d When the state of the art is shoe leather and donkeys, the result is the hilly paths of Jerusalem. When it\u2019s men on horseback and sailing ships, it\u2019s the ports of Lisbon, Hong Kong, or Boston, and the canals of Venice and Amsterdam. The birth of the railway produced Kansas City, Omaha, and the stockyards of Chicago. And the mass production of the Model T led first to Los Angeles and later to Levittown, Long Island.<\/p>\n

Today, the modern combination on the ground is the car and internet, yielding Garreau\u2019s \u201cedge cities\u201d, which are everywhere and nowhere within America, and have since cropped up in Bangalore and beyond. Canary Wharf, Delhi\u2019s Gurgaon and the suburbs of northern Virginia more closely resemble each other than their neighbours. Soaring above them all are jet aircraft \u2013 first put into service 60 years ago \u2013 collapsing the distance between Dallas and Dubai as effortlessly as the internet nodes connecting them.<\/p>\n

But as transport and communication costs fall, and movement and accessibility become easier, cities\u00a0have become less dense and contiguous and grown more dispersed, networked, fluid. In the internet age, this fluidity promised that those of us who make our living with\u00a0computers could live anywhere. No one has preached this vision more\u00a0fervently than the technologist George Gilder, whose utopia of the \u201ctelecosm\u201d\u00a0and infinite bandwidth has us scattering back into the countryside to live like gentlemen farmers, with Facebook serving\u00a0as the village green.<\/p>\n

But total dispersal hasn\u2019t come to pass, and it won\u2019t, no matter how\u00a0much bandwidth we\u2019re able to route through our iPhones. In fact, the\u00a0same technologies that were supposed to disaggregate us have only made\u00a0concentration more useful. We\u2019re becoming more urban at precisely\u00a0the moment our outlook is growing more global. We keep an eye on the\u00a0street and a mobile phone to our ears, somehow managing to be in both\u00a0places at once. The same thing is happening at a macro level, too. The Los Angeles hinterlands, for example, aren\u2019t California\u2019s Central Valley\u00a0or the high Mojave Desert but the outlands of Seoul, Hong Kong and\u00a0Mexico City, connected via mobile phones, social networks and satellite offices. The product of the jet age and the internet\u00a0age is our current instant age, simultaneously favouring both aggregation and\u00a0dispersal.<\/p>\n

This is where John Kasarda comes in. With the aerotropolis, he attempts to answer the question of what the cities of this age should look\u00a0like. What will their shape and purpose be when the state of the art at\u00a0the time of their birth is ubiquitous WiFi and jumbo jets? Will they resemble Dubai, which is busy reinventing itself as the Middle East\u2019s entrep\u00f4t, Africa\u2019s aerial gateway and a luxury shopping mecca for middle class Chinese? Or will they look more like converging cities of the Pearl River Delta, where a single factory (Foxconn\u2019s) could leverage Hong Kong\u2019s airport to supply every Apple iPad or iPhone in the world?<\/p>\n

Implicit in such thinking is a zero-sum world\u00a0of exponential population increase and cut-throat competition for resources\u00a0and profits. Kasarda\u2019s vision evokes everything we find terrifying\u00a0about globalisation \u2013 a civilisation cast in quick-drying cement, packed\u00a0with worker drones. But even if you accept his logic, you have to ask: who are these cities for? The companies\u00a0that profit from marginally leaner operations? The autocratic leaders who are jockeying to land them? Or the\u00a0planners, architects and sages given carte blanche to raise islands from\u00a0oceans and plant tarmac in desert?<\/p>\n

Will we\u00a0consciously choose to live in cities built in globalisation\u2019s image \u2013 machines for living linked in great chains? Kasarda\u00a0believes that we will, that we should, and that we\u2019ll suffer the consequences\u00a0if we don\u2019t, because these debates have already been settled\u00a0(one way or another) in places like China and Dubai, which have staked\u00a0everything on the global triumphing over the local.<\/p>\n

China is building an aerotropolis wherever it deems strategic: as outposts in oil-rich\u00a0Angola<\/a> and Sudan and in the copper belt of\u00a0Zambia<\/a>; in Pakistan, to complement the deep-water port at Gwadar, and most of all in western China, where more than 100\u00a0new airports<\/a> are under construction. The goal is to put one within driving distance of 80 per cent of its population by 2020.<\/p>\n

The UN World Tourism Organisation expects the annual number of Chinese tourists abroad to triple by 2020 to 115 million; already, more are leaving to see the world than foreigners are arriving to see China. Where are they heading? I found one clue in Dubai recently, where my hotel was overrun with families toting shopping bags. Tourism from China to the United Arab Emirates has soared since the emirates landed on China\u2019s \u201capproved destination\u201d list in autumn 2009. The number of Chinese visiting Dubai soared 57 per cent in the first half of last year, totalling 81,900 in all.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re heading next to the high street near you. Despite a decade\u2019s worth of high oil prices and terrorism fears, we have never flown as far or in greater numbers than we do right now. As recently as 1999, Ryanair had no website, and it was impossible to take a non-stop flight from New York to New Delhi or Beijing. The world may or may not have flattened since then, but there\u2019s a lot less changing planes.<\/p>\n

In the end, we won\u2019t stop flying, for the simple reason that quitting now would run counter to our human impulse to roam. Will you be the one to tell 100 million Chinese tourists (and another 100 million Indians) that they will have to stay home?<\/p>\n

This is an edited extract from \u2018Aerotropolis: The Way We\u2019ll Live Next\u2019, by John Kasarda and Greg Lindsay, published by Penguin, \u00a314.99<\/em><\/p>\n

…………………………………………..<\/p>\n

Flight of fancy?<\/p>\n

Someone smart came up with the title of John Kasarda and Greg Lindsay\u2019s book.\u00a0Aerotropolis \u2013 The Way We\u2019ll Live Next<\/em> is an astute blend of the intriguing, the beguiling and the faintly menacing,\u00a0writes Pilita Clark. But is it true? Are we really heading for a world where we build our cities around our airports instead of the other way round? That depends on who \u201cwe\u201d are. And how we define an aerotropolis.<\/p>\n

\"Airport<\/a>On his website (www.aerotropolis.com<\/a>), John Kasarda, a US academic who has been putting the economic case for the concept for years, uses a diagram to explain how such a city would look. It shows an airport surrounded by clusters of air transport-related businesses, convention centres, exhibition halls, hotels, malls and homes. These are fed by \u201caerolanes\u201d or \u201caerotrains\u201d, pumping in passengers and goods.<\/p>\n

By this definition, Schiphol airport, Dallas-Fort Worth, Dubai and many others already share aerotropolistic traits. Even Heathrow has a few. But Heathrow is also a good example of the limits to this vision. It has beenbanned from building a third runway<\/a> and it took longer to obtain planning permission for terminal five than it took Beijing airport to build its vast new terminal three. The idea that approval would ever be given to flatten swathes of its surrounding suburbs to\u00a0make way for an aerotropolis<\/a> is impossible to imagine. The same can be said for dozens of the world\u2019s best-known airports. And yet the model has been embraced in India, China, the Philippines and South Korea.<\/p>\n

So if the idea of an aerotropolis is not the way you want to live next, relax if you live in a crowded part of North America or Europe. And stay away from emerging rivals hoping that airport cities will help them become the developed world of tomorrow.<\/p>\n

Pilita Clark is the FT\u2019s aerospace correspondent<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Don Southerton, Songdo IBD CityTalk Editor Found this in FT.com. Nice comments by Stan Gale of Gale International, too. 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