![\"brexit\"](\"http:\/\/www.songdoibdcitytalk.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/brexit-300x172.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThings are still fluid, so my commentary targets the impact on Korea-facing global business and specifically the Korean car sector (and dominated players, Hyundai and Kia).<\/p>\n
That said, as a cultural historian it\u2019s hard not to mention my initial reaction is a potentially wider pendulum swing toward populist Protectionism-Isolationism after years of \u201cThe World is Flat\u201d Globalism and Free Trade Agreements.<\/p>\n
To begin\u2026.
\nHeadlines abound like \u201cthe Pound tanked, while the Dollar and the Japanese Yen gain ground,\u201d and \u201c\u2026 Brexit a blow to integrated global economy,\u201d the later a Korean headline.<\/p>\n
From a broader trade perspective, South Korea\u2019s exposure to the U.K. is minimal.
\nDue to this low trade exposure we expect the Brexit to have no major impact on the Korea economy\u2019s projected growth. Korea\u2019s exports to the U.K. amounted to just 1.4 percent of all export shipments. \u00a0This said, the Brexit\u2019s wider implications have many in Korea on alert and noting \u00a0\u201cthe uncertainty\u201d that was common term cited last year with the downswing in the global economy.<\/p>\n
More significant, and something I comment on often is the foreign exchange market. As we see when there is some global economic crisis, the immediately effect is the Won-Dollar exchange rate impacted\u2014in this case Korean currency sinking compared to the U.S. dollar by the greatest % rate in five years.<\/p>\n
This is not always a bad thing\u2026.
\nAs a result, US Dollar profits repatriated back to Korea are worth more in Won, so essential US overseas operations getting more bang for the Buck.<\/p>\n
We need to watch carefully the Won with relation to the Japanese Yen, too. South Korean carmakers fared well between 2007 and 2011 as the Won fell as much as 50% against the Yen. That trend reversed in the middle of 2012. \u00a0So, noted in my introduction, the Yen is strengthening.<\/p>\n
Regarding car imports to UK\u2026.
\nThe Brexit departure could revive a 10-percent tariff on exports of Korean passenger vehicles to UK unless a deal similar to the EU-Korea trade pact is negotiated. \u00a0Short term this will have little impact, as there is a 2 year grace period for the withdraw from the EU.<\/p>\n
If no UK-Korea trade agreement is implemented, the Korean car brands will have disadvantage in price competitiveness compared to Japanese and German rivals, which have production bases in the UK.<\/p>\n
For the Hyundai and Kia\u2026. the real concern is the effect it will have on the European market as a whole, as well as the global economy\u2026. \u00a0In recent months, both Hyundai and Kia have seen an upswing in business in the EU \u00a0\u00a0As of last year, Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors sold about 850,000 vehicles in the European countries, with 20 percent sold in the U.K.<\/p>\n
Thanks to the FTA benefits, Korea has exported cars over 1,500 CC without any tariffs. Starting from July, those under 1,500 CC are also exempt from tariffs.<\/p>\n
Over time\u2026\u00a0We\u2019ll see UK move to becoming a \u201cregulatory island adopting its own rules for tariffs, duties and standards. The European market will be more like Asia\u2014with different rules in we find in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and China.<\/p>\n
Crisis?
\nTo share a reach out for a comment from a close colleague and a leading global economist focused on Korea\u2026. my friend notes:\u00a0\u201cProbably a lot of turbulence over next several weeks because many aspects of the Brexit were not considered by the Leave camp. But I think the markets are probably oversold as London\u2019s position as financial center is not affected in short-run, and neither is trade. Put differently, the material effects are not as catastrophic as might appear in short-run \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
In closing\u2026 look for my follow ups this week\u2026. \u00a0As well as share you comments and questions\u2026 so, please share your remarks\u2026. \u263a<\/p>\n
As mentioned in my introduction, whether Brexit is isolated, or the first of a broader populist Protectionism movement\u2014it is something of interest to be followed\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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Everything Korea: Brexit, Korea and Hyundai - Bridging Culture Worldwide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.songdoibdcitytalk.com\/blog\/everything-korea-brexit-korea-hyundai\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Everything Korea: Brexit, Korea and Hyundai - Bridging Culture Worldwide\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Difficult not to be following Brexit (short for British Exit from the EU). 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<\/a><\/p>\n